Black swan fallacy

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The black swan fallacy is one in which the arguer ignores contradictory evidence on the basis of past experience. This can also be a variation of an argument from ignorance, i.e. Every swan we've ever seen is white, therefore there cannot be black swans, ignoring the possibility of a black swan occurring in the future.

Example

  • A: All of the swans I have ever seen have been white. Therefore, all swans are white.
  • B: Here's a black swan.
  • A: All swans are white, therefore that can't be a swan.

See also

External link

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