Black swan fallacy

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For more information, see the Atheist Debates video on Black Swan fallacy vs Null Hypothesis.

The black swan fallacy is one in which the arguer ignores contradictory evidence on the basis of past experience. This can also be a variation of an argument from ignorance, i.e. Every swan we've ever seen is white, therefore there cannot be black swans, ignoring the possibility of a black swan occurring in the future.

Example

  • A: All of the swans I have ever seen have been white. Therefore, all swans are white.
  • B: Here's a black swan.
  • A: All swans are white, therefore that can't be a swan.

See also

External link

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