Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence

(Difference between revisions)
Jump to: navigation, search
(A simple example: tighten up wording)
(Absence of evidence for God: + Scientific investigation)
Line 15: Line 15:
  
 
The two aspects of this phrase might therefore be summarized as: "When presented with some proposition P, we should initially keep an open mind. But if a diligent search fails to produce evidence that P is true, then we can rationally conclude that P is false." Note that the "diligent search" '''must''' be of a kind that could realistically be expected to produce positive results if P were indeed true.
 
The two aspects of this phrase might therefore be summarized as: "When presented with some proposition P, we should initially keep an open mind. But if a diligent search fails to produce evidence that P is true, then we can rationally conclude that P is false." Note that the "diligent search" '''must''' be of a kind that could realistically be expected to produce positive results if P were indeed true.
 +
 +
==Scientific investigation==
 +
[[Science]] often works in a similar manner, using inference based not only on observed but also unobserved phenomena.
 +
 +
An example:
 +
* A scientist develops [[hypothesis]] H explaining a certain observed phenomenon P<sub>1</sub>.
 +
* The scientist reasons that if H is true, then a different phenomenon P<sub>2</sub> should also be observed under certain conditions.
 +
* When this prediction is tested, phenomenon P<sub>2</sub> is not observed.
 +
* Repeated tests still fail to produce phenomenon P<sub>2</sub>.
 +
* The scientist concludes that H was not the proper explanation of phenomenon P<sub>1</sub>.
  
 
==Absence of evidence for God==
 
==Absence of evidence for God==
  
The question of whether [[God]] exists is considered very important to many people, and has been for millenia. Thousands of people have assiduously searched for evidence that a god exists. Nonetheless, there is still no good evidence for a god. Many [[atheist]]s thus feel justified in not believing that any gods exist.
+
The question of whether [[God]] exists is considered very important to many people, and has been for millennia. Thousands of people have assiduously searched for evidence that a god exists. Nonetheless, there is still no good evidence for a god. Many [[atheist]]s thus feel justified in not believing that any gods exist, and in fact some feel justified in [[Strong atheism|concluding that no gods exist]].
  
 
[[Category:Arguments]]
 
[[Category:Arguments]]
 
[[Category:Logical fallacies]]
 
[[Category:Logical fallacies]]

Revision as of 12:57, 9 October 2008

"Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" is a rebuttal to an argument of the form "there is no evidence for X, therefore X does not exist." Logically, the latter argument is invalid; however, a similar, more careful line of inductive reasoning can nevertheless lead to a reliable conclusion.

A simple example

  • An explorer lands on a remote island and sees no buildings or other signs of human habitation.
  • The explorer therefore concludes that the island is uninhabited.

The conclusion here is unwarranted. There may be inhabitants on the other side of the island or in dwellings that are otherwise hidden from view. In this case, absence of evidence of habitation is not evidence that there are no inhabitants.

However, consider the following scenario:

  • An explorer lands on a remote island and spends weeks carefully searching the entire island for signs of habitation.
  • Finding no evidence, the explorer concludes that the island is uninhabited.

In this case, the explorer's conclusion is justified. If there were inhabitants on the island, there should be some evidence of their existence somewhere on the island. If there are no signs where there should have been some, then it is likely that there are no inhabitants.

The two aspects of this phrase might therefore be summarized as: "When presented with some proposition P, we should initially keep an open mind. But if a diligent search fails to produce evidence that P is true, then we can rationally conclude that P is false." Note that the "diligent search" must be of a kind that could realistically be expected to produce positive results if P were indeed true.

Scientific investigation

Science often works in a similar manner, using inference based not only on observed but also unobserved phenomena.

An example:

  • A scientist develops hypothesis H explaining a certain observed phenomenon P1.
  • The scientist reasons that if H is true, then a different phenomenon P2 should also be observed under certain conditions.
  • When this prediction is tested, phenomenon P2 is not observed.
  • Repeated tests still fail to produce phenomenon P2.
  • The scientist concludes that H was not the proper explanation of phenomenon P1.

Absence of evidence for God

The question of whether God exists is considered very important to many people, and has been for millennia. Thousands of people have assiduously searched for evidence that a god exists. Nonetheless, there is still no good evidence for a god. Many atheists thus feel justified in not believing that any gods exist, and in fact some feel justified in concluding that no gods exist.

Personal tools
Namespaces
Variants
Actions
wiki navigation
IronChariots.Org
Toolbox